Mortgage rates are dropping again, sparking attention across the housing market. According to Freddie Mac, refinancing applications now account for nearly 47% of total mortgage activity, the highest level since October 2024. Homeowners looking to lower their monthly payments may find opportunities to refinance, while prospective buyers are closely watching how rates may shift in the coming weeks. (Check Bankrate for the latest low-rate offers near you.)
With the Federal Reserve scheduled to meet September 16–17, many buyers are wondering whether mortgage rates will continue to fall. Here’s what four industry experts say about the current trend and what it means for your home purchase.
Top Factors Driving Mortgage Rates
Chen Zhao, Chief Economist at Redfin, notes that rate movement largely depends on upcoming economic reports: the September 5 jobs report and the September 10–11 inflation report. Chen explains:
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If the Fed doesn’t cut rates → mortgage rates could rise
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If the Fed follows expected cuts → rates will likely stay near current levels
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If aggressive rate cuts are needed → rates may fall further
He also warns that uncertainties such as inflation rebounds or economic slowdown could trigger larger swings in mortgage rates.
Compare: How the Economy Impacts Your Mortgage
Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, emphasizes that the U.S. economy is the biggest factor affecting mortgage rates:
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Weak labor market → rates drop
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Persistent inflation or rising debt → rates stay high
McBride expects that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will likely remain between 6.5% and 6.8%, unless there’s a sudden spike in inflation or a sharp economic slowdown.
What Buyers Can Expect in the Short Term
Rachel Glazer, Realtor at Compass, predicts small declines in mortgage rates over the next month, but no dramatic drops. She notes:
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Mortgage rates respond to investor expectations about Fed moves, not just the federal funds rate
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A major rate drop could boost buyer demand and push home prices higher
Chip Lupo, Analyst at WalletHub, adds that September rates may hover in the mid-6% range—lower than early 2025 peaks above 7%, but still well above the sub-3% rates seen during the pandemic. This “high-rate” environment can discourage first-time buyers and create a “lock-in effect,” where homeowners with lower rates avoid selling.
Best Advice for Buyers: Should You Buy Now or Wait?
McBride notes that rates need big moves to meaningfully impact buying decisions. Current 6%+ rates have pushed home sales to near 30-year lows, even during peak summer season.
Experts agree that waiting for a potential rate drop may not be wise:
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If you can afford the mortgage and find a suitable home → buy now
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If purchasing stretches your budget → wait safely
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Even after buying, you can refinance later if rates fall
Bottom Line: How Falling Rates Affect Your Costs
Lower mortgage rates create refinancing opportunities, but buying a home now still depends on personal finances and housing supply. Watching upcoming economic data and Fed announcements can help you make smarter decisions—but the best strategy is balancing affordability, timing, and long-term savings.